"Elections have consequences." Though this phrase is perhaps a bit tired, it also is certainly true to some degree, as each new administration ushers in policies that may either advance or reverse the initiatives of the predecessor, particularly if the new President is from the opposition party. Such is the case with the election again of Donald Trump as the 47^th President, and the prospects of the next four years in comparison with the immediately preceding administration are paramount on everyone's radar, no less so in the realm of domestic energy policy. But rather than speaking in terms of "consequences," perhaps the best approach is to examine the potential impacts that the nation's election decision poses, as those impacts may be both positive or negative, depending on the point of view. While those impacts are likely to be far-reaching, this article highlights just a handful of predominant energy technology sectors, including nuclear, solar, electric vehicles (EVs), offshore wind, and battery storage.

As demonstrated by the selected articles below, the prevailing narrative in each of these sectors appears to be the dualistic nature of President-elect Trump's plan to curb or eliminate federal subsidies that may significantly impact the development of these technologies, juxtaposed with his clear intent to also pursue energy independence and domestic energy production dominance. This dichotomy produces both concerns and hopes for what the next four years under President Trump might bring forth in each of these realms. But as of today, the best that can be said is that uncertainty prevails and only time will provide clarity.

Nuclear

One of the greatest questions under the prospective new administration is how President-elect Trump's second administration will impact the emerging trend of investment in new nuclear generation technology. As detailed in Utility Dive, the prognostications are mixed. On one hand, Mr. Trump's focus on U.S. energy production, dominance, and independence indicates that the next Trump administration will be supportive of nuclear power to some degree, as was his last administration. This may be reflected in the recent spike in nuclear industry shares, indicating industry confidence that nuclear development will continue. On the other hand, it seems clear that the next Trump administration will not sustain the current administration's subsidization of the technology, though such subsidies for nuclear technology actually have bipartisan support. As the article also notes, Mr. Trump's prior administration very heavily favored oil and natural gas development over nuclear power, thus creating some additional uncertainty as to what the next four years may portend.    

Solar

Moving to solar, CNBC reports that solar energy company stocks immediately began falling with the election results. This is likely based on the President-elect's campaign platform calling for the termination of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which was passed purely on party lines and provided for significant federal investment in solar development. While there is no indication that Mr. Trump is philosophically opposed to solar energy, it seems evident that the current administration's subsidization of solar through the IRA is most certainly going to end with the White House and both chambers of Congress under Republican leadership.

Electric Vehicles

One of the most significant energy sectors that a new Trump administration may impact is EV development. As CNBC has also reported, Mr. Trump aggressively campaigned on his opposition to what he referred to as the "EV mandate," vowing to take steps – including the possible elimination of the IRA – to reduce or remove vehicle emissions standards that many view as an effort to force a nationwide transition away from internal combustion engines entirely. Of prime example in this regard is California's extremely aggressive zero-emissions requirement, which largely drives the nationwide trend and which President-elect Trump is expected to fight. Regardless, the article notes that every shift in administration brings potential new "winners and losers" in the EV sector, with traditional auto manufacturers now poised to experience potential big "wins" as a result of the next Trump presidency. Of course, as yet to be seen is how the presence in the administration of Tesla's Elon Musk may sway the President-elect's strategy toward EVs.  

Offshore Wind

Regarding offshore wind technology, the expectation is that President-elect Trump will likewise apply the brakes to the current trend. According to the Associated Press, Mr. Trump's promise to "end" offshore wind projects "on Day 1," on the basis that these wind farms are prohibitively expensive and pose substantial environmental and conservational risks, will not be as simple as his planned Executive Order. As the author notes, although Mr. Trump's opposition to offshore wind is already having impacts on European manufacturers, it is likely that any action taken would only impact projects in the queue and not those that are currently in service. Furthermore, there is an argument that continued development of offshore wind actually supports Mr. Trump's overall policy strategy of investing in American manufacturing and energy independence (and his prior Interior Secretary was a strong supporter of offshore wind technology). It remains to be seen whether the President-elect's vocal disdain for offshore wind will translate into firm action, though at this point it does appear likely.   

Battery Storage

Finally, as discussed in Utility Dive, many in the energy storage sector view the election of Mr. Trump as a potential risk to the battery industry. At the heart of this concern is, again, the President-elect's intent to curb federal subsidization through the IRA; but adding to this apprehension is Mr. Trump's affinity for tariffs, which could dramatically impact imports of Chinese-made materials and battery components. That said, the current dominance of China in the realm of battery technologies and the simultaneous need to enhance domestic production may provide an incentive for Mr. Trump, and the Republican-held Congress, to either maintain existing domestic subsidies or find some other approach to support this critical emerging energy technology sector.